Publications and research results

Teng Liu, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Zhen Qian, Chan Diao, Taylor Smith, Niklas BoersTeng Liu, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Zhen Qian, Chan Diao, Taylor Smith, and Niklas Boers (2026):
Data gaps and outliers distort critical-slowing-down-based resilience indicators
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aee1916

Michael Aich, Philipp Hess, Baoxiang Pan, Sebastian Bathiany, Yu Huang, and Niklas Boers (2026):
Conditional diffusion models for downscaling and bias correction of Earth system model precipitation
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https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1791-2026

Niccol Zagli, Matthew J. Colbrook, Valerio Lucarini, Igor Mezi , and John Moroney (2026):
Bridging the Gap Between Koopmanism and Response Theory: Using NaturalVariability to Predict Forced Response
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https://doi.org/10.1137/24M1699206

P. Bernuzzi, C. Kuehn, and A. Morr (2026):
Critical slowing down in bifurcating stochastic partial differential equations with red noise
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s42985-025-00366-7

Taylor Smith, Andreas Morr, Bodo Bookhagen, and Niklas Boers (2026):
Predicting instabilities in transient landforms and interconnected ecosystems
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68944-w‍

Andreas Morr, Christian Kuehn, and George Datseris (2026):
Computing resilience measures in dynamical systems

https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0303938

Pierre Testorf, Clemens Schannwell, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz (2026):
Coupled Climate-Ice-Sheet Simulations Reveal Novel Teleconnection Between Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets and the Antarctic Ice Sheet
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118959

Selma Bultan, Yiannis Moustakis, Sebastian Bathiany, Niklas Boers, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Gergana Gyuleva, Julia Pongratz (2025):
Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change
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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2418813122

Keno Riechers, Andreas Morr, Klaus Lehnertz, Pedro G. Lind, Niklas Boers, Dirk Witthaut, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão (2025):
Discontinuous stochastic forcing in Greenland ice core data
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07880-9

Christian Wirths, Antoine Hermant, Christian Stepanek, Thomas F. Stocker & Johannes C. R. Sutter (2025):
Sequence of abrupt transitions in Antarctic drainage basins before and during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65375-x

Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark Williamson, and Peter Cox (2025):
Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025

Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal (2025):
Inconclusive Early warning signals for Dansgaard- Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025

Mark Pickering, Agata Elia, Gonzalo Oton, Matteo Piccardo, Guido Ceccherini, Giovanni Forzieri, Mirco Migliavacca, Alessandro Cescatti, and Marco Girardello (2025):
Enhanced structural diversity increases European forest resilience and may compensate climate-driven declines
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02592-8

Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra and Anna S. von der Heydt (2025):
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025

Lenton, T. M., Milkoreit, M., Willcock, S., Abrams, J. F., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Buxton, J. E., Donges, J. F., Loriani, S., Wunderling, N., Alkemade, F., Barrett, M., Constantino, S., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Boulton, C. A., Pinho, P., Dijkstra, H. A. Pearce-Kelly, P., RomanCuesta, R. M., Dennis, D. (eds) (2025):
Global Tipping Points Report 2025
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https://global-tipping-points.org/

Chenyu Dong, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Adriano Gualandi, Valerio Lucarini, Gianmarco Mengaldo (2025):
Spatio-temporal dynamical indices for complex systems
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117248

Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S.R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal (2025):
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025

Beatriz Arellano-Nava, Timothy M. Lenton, Chris A. Boulton, Sarah Holmes, James Scourse, Paul G. Butler, David J. Reynolds, Tamara Trofimova, Pierre Poitevin, Alejandro Román-González, and Paul R. Halloran (2025):
Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw3468

Niklas Boers, Teng Liu, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Nils Bochow, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Andreas Morr, Da Nian, Martin Rypdal, and Taylor Smith (2025):
Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0

Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix (2025):
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problemESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot mattersTopological modes of variability in the wind-driven ocean circulation
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025

Paul Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox (2025):
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot mattersTopological modes of variability in the wind-driven ocean circulation
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025

Charó, G.D., D. Sciamarella, J. Ruiz, S. Pierini, and M. Ghil (2025):
Topological modes of variability in the wind-driven ocean circulation
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0261968

Peter Ashwin, Robbin Bastiaansen, Anna S von der Heydt and Paul Ritchie (2025):
Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2025.0405

S. Bathiany, E. J. Kim, and N. Boers (2025):
Multiple modes in tropical tree cover: a multi-dimensional perspective
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf7c2

Andreas Morr, Dörte Kreher, and Niklas Boers (2025):
Red noise in continuous-time stochastic modelling
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.250573

Bryony Hobden, Peter Ashwin, and Paul D. L. Ritchie (2025):
Regularization of a conceptual model for Dansgaard–Oeschger events
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0244302

Frerk Pöppelmeier and Thomas Stocker (2025):
Mutual stabilization of AMOC and GrIS due to different transient response to warming
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf45a

Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra (2025):
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025

Mirco Migliavacca, Giacomo Grassi, Ana Bastos, Guido Ceccherini, Philippe Ciais, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Emanuele Lugato, Miguel D. Mahecha, Kimberly A. Novick, Josep Peñuelas, Roberto Pilli, Markus Reichstein, Valerio Avitabile, Pieter S. A. Beck, José I. Barredo, Giovanni Forzieri, Martin Herold, Anu Korosuo, Nicolas Mansuy, Sarah Mubareka, Rene Orth, Paul Rougieux & Alessandro Cescatti (2025):
Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union’s climate ambition
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08967-3

Christopher C. Chapman, Didier P. Monselesan, James S. Risbey, Abdelwaheb Hannachi, Valerio Lucarini, and Richard Matear (2025):
The Typicality of Regimes Associated with Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves
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https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0548.1

Bach, E., D. Crisan, and M. Ghil (2025):
Forecast error growth: A dynamic-stochastic model
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0248102

Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson (2025):
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025

L. Heck; M. Gelbrecht; M. T. Schaub; N. Boers (2025):
Improving the noise estimation of latent neural stochastic differential equations
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0257224

D. Walwer, J. Gonzalez-Santana, C. Wauthier, E. Calais & M. Ghil (2025):
Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of InSAR datasets: data-adaptive interpolation and decomposition of Sentinel-1 time series at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala
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https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaf257

Sjoerd Terpstra, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Robbin Bastiaansen, Sebastian Bathiany, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt (2025):
Assessment of Abrupt Shifts in CMIP6 Models Using Edge Detection
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001698

Valeria Mascolo, Alessandro Lovo, Corentin Herbert, Freddy Bouchet (2025):
Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004487

Mingzhao Wang, Yu Huang, Christian L. E. Franzke, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu & Niklas Boers (2025):
Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60104-w

Chenyu Dong, Davide Faranda, Adriano Gualandi, Valerio Lucarini, and Gianmarco Mengaldo (2025):
Time-lagged recurrence: A data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems
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https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2420252122

Maraldi, B., H. A. Dijkstra, and M. Ghil (2025):
Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climate trends
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0253103

Crisan, D., M. Ghil, and R. Nuckchady (2025):
Exponential stability for a forecast-assimilation process with unstable dynamics
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https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0241166

Matthew B. Menary, Laura C. Jackson, Richard A. Wood, and Richard A. Betts (2025):
Abrupt Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Their Impact on the Climate of the British Isles
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113871

J. Lohmann, A. B. Hansen, A. Lovo, R. Chapman, F. Bouchet, and V. Lucarini (2025):
The role of edge states for early warning of tipping points
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https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2024.0753

Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal and Niklas Boers (2025):
Reconstructing historical climate fields with deep learning
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adp0558

Ningning Tao, Xiaosong Chen, Fei Xie, Yongwen Zhang, Yan Xia, Xuan Ma, Han Huang and Hongyu Wang (2025):
A Revisit of Large-Scale Patterns in Middle Stratospheric Circulation Variations
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https://doi.org/10.3390/e27040327

Philipp Hess, Michael Aich, Baoxiang Pan and Niklas Boers (2025):
Fast, scale-adaptive and uncertainty-aware downscaling of Earth system model fields with generative machine learning
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s42256-025-00980-5

Yiran Xie, Xu Wang, Yatong Qian, Teng Liu, Hao Fan, Xiaosong Chen (2025):
Ecosystem evolution and drivers across the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124885

Ruth R. Chapman, Peter Ashwin, and Richard A. Wood (2025):
Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC
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‍https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0240959

Baker, J. A., Bell  M. J., Jackson L. C., Vallis  G. K., Watson A. J. & Wood R. A. (2025):
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08544-0

Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, and Niklas Boers (2024):
Synchronization of Layer-Counted Paleoclimatic Proxy Archives Using a Bayesian Regression Modeling Framework
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‍https://doi.org/10.1214/25-BA1509

Felix M. Strnad, Kieran M.R. Hunt, Niklas Boers, Bedartha GoswamiFelix M. Strnad, Kieran M.R. Hunt, Niklas Boers, and Bedartha Goswami (2025):
Intraseasonal synchronization of extreme rainfalls between North India and the Sahel
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https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4946