Meet our
scientists & experts

5 Work Streams
18 Work Packages
50+ Team Members
Work Stream 1

Advance understanding of Tipping Elements and their representation in models across the hierarchy

Work Packages 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
Peter Ashwin
Work Stream Lead
University of Exeter
p.ashwin@exeter.ac.uk
I work within the Department of Maths and Stats as a Professor of Mathematics specializing in dynamical systems theory and computational modelling. Current research includes mathematical modelling of paleoclimate transitions, molecular networks, phase change materials in data storage media, using heteroclinic networks to model functional dynamics in neural and other biomedical systems and tipping points in nonautonomous systems with applications in climate and elsewhere.
Valerio Lucarini
Work Stream Lead
University of Leicester
v.lucarini@leicester.ac.uk
Here at the University of Leicester I am affiliated with the School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, where I coordinate the research activities in Mathematical Modelling for Science and Engineering. I am also part of the Institute of the Environmental Futures and of the Center for Artificial Intelligence, Data Analytics, and Modelling.
Work Package 1

Mathematical analysis to improve Tipping Element representation in models

Henk Dijkstra
Work Package Lead
Utrecht University
h.a.dijkstra@uu.nl
Henk A. Dijkstra is professor of Dynamical Oceanography at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht and director of the Centre for Complex Systems Studies within the Department of Physics of Utrecht University. He was trained as an applied mathematician and held positions at the University of Groningen,  Cornell University, and Colorado State University. His main research interests are on climate variability, in particular climate transitions, with a focus on the role of the oceans. He is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics and in 2005, he received the Lewis Fry Richardson medal from the European Geosciences Union. In 2021, he was awarded an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council.
Robbin Bastiaansen
Researcher
Utrecht University
r.bastiaansen@uu.nl
Dr. Robbin Bastiaansen is assistant professor at a joint position between the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU) and the Mathematical Institute (MI) at Utrecht University. He obtained his PhD degree in applied mathematics from Leiden University in 2019 on pattern formation and desertification. His research focusses on nonlinear dynamical systems and their applications to climate (sub)systems and ecosystems. Hereby, he combines the development of new mathematical theory and techniques, and the application of these to get a better understanding of climate and ecosystem responses to forcings.
Reyk Börner
Researcher
Utrecht University
r.borner@uu.nl
Reyk Börner is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht. His work applies concepts from dynamical systems theory, statistical physics and complexity science to study metastable dynamics of climate tipping elements, particularly the AMOC. After studying physics in Berlin and Copenhagen, Reyk conducted a PhD in applied mathematics at University of Reading, focusing on metastability and tipping phenomena in a hierarchy of climate models. He was awarded the university's Fairbrother Lecture 2024.
Work Package 2

Theoretical underpinning of resilience measures for high-dimensional systems

Christian Kuehn
Work Package Lead
Technical University of Munich
ckuehn@ma.tum.de
The research interests of Christian Kühn (b. 1981) lie at the interface of differential equations, dynamical systems and mathematical modelling. A key goal is to analyze multiscale problems and the effect of noise/uncertainty in various classes of ordinary, partial, and stochastic differential equations as well as in adaptive networks. The phenomena of central interest are: patterns, bifurcations and scaling laws. On a technical level, Kühn's work aims to build bridges between different areas of the study of dynamical systems. After studying mathematics at Jacobs University Bremen (BSc 2005) and at the University of Cambridge (M.A.St. 2006), Kuehn received his PhD in Applied Mathematics from Cornell University in 2010. Subsequently he worked at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems in Dresden as a postdoctoral researcher in the field of network dynamics. From 2011 to 2016 he was postdoctoral fellow at Vienna University of Technology in the Institute for Analysis and Scientific Computing and a Leibniz fellow at MFO in 2013.  He is Lichtenberg Professor at TUM (starting 2016 as Assistant Professor and from 2022 Full Professor).
Andreas Morr
Researcher
Technical University of Munich
andreas.morr@tum.de
Andreas Morr is a mathematician and physicist currently obtaining his PhD in applied mathematics. Coming from a background of stochastic analysis and modelling, he is deriving statistical methods for the anticipation of climate tipping points. Measures of system resilience yield information about the impacts of climate change on Earth System components. The estimation of these measures in real-world systems within a mathematical framework is a subject of ongoing research.
Work Package 3

Transient behaviour and tipping in rapidly forced systems

Peter Ashwin
Work Package Lead
University of Exeter
p.ashwin@exeter.ac.uk
I work within the Department of Maths and Stats as a Professor of Mathematics specializing in dynamical systems theory and computational modelling. Current research includes mathematical modelling of paleoclimate transitions, molecular networks, phase change materials in data storage media, using heteroclinic networks to model functional dynamics in neural and other biomedical systems and tipping points in nonautonomous systems with applications in climate and elsewhere.
Paul Ritchie
Researcher
University of Exeter
paul.ritchie@exeter.ac.uk
Paul Ritchie works on the intersect of dynamical systems theory and environmental change modelling, specialising in tipping points of strongly forced systems. He has pioneered the criteria of a mitigation window for overshoots of tipping thresholds and researched the effects a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would have on Great Britain’s land use. Paul Ritchie is a contributing author on Chapter 1 of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Work Package 4

Identification of unknown Tipping Elements

Jonathan Donges
Work Package Lead
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
donges@pik-potsdam.de
Jonathan Donges is Deputy Lead of the Earth Resilience Science Unit (ERSU) at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He leads ERSU's research theme on integrated human-Earth system modelling and Earth resilience analysis. He interacts closely with PIK's Earth System Analysis (RD1) and Complexity Science Departments (RD4) in the scope of PIK's Earth System Science collaboration and the COPAN collaboration. His research work focusses on dynamics of planetary-scale socio-ecological systems, climatic and social tipping elements, their dynamics and interactions, decarbonization dynamics and sustainability transformation, conceptual models of society-environment coevolutionary dynamics, structure and dynamics of complex networks, nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis, and application of these methods to climate physics and Earth system analysis.
Jakob Harteg
Researcher
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
jakob.harteg@pik-potsdam.de
Jakob Harteg is a doctoral researcher in climate physics specialising in the detection and analysis of tipping points in the Earth system. His work integrates time series analysis, spatio-temporal clustering, and machine learning to uncover abrupt transitions in climate model outputs. He is a core contributor to the development of TOAD (Tipping and Other Abrupt events Detector), a Python package for detecting and clustering abrupt shifts in spatio-temporal datasets. He is supervised by Sina Loriani, Jonathan Donges, and Ricarda Winkelmann.
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Work Stream 2

Model characteristics of large-scale climate and ecosystem Tipping Elements

Work Packages 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9
Anna von der Heydt
Work Stream Lead
University of Exeter
a.s.vonderheydt@uu.nl
Anna von der Heydt is a professor for paleoclimate dynamics at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research at Utrecht University, the Netherlands. Trained as a physicist at the University of Marburg (Germany), she received her PhD degree at the University of Twente (Netherlands) working on fluid dynamics. Her work focusses on (palaeo-) climate phenomena and transition behaviour in climate using a hierarchy of climate models and stochastic dynamical systems approaches. She works on quantifying the state-dependent climate response to forcing. In 2021 she received a personal grant by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) to investigate interaction tipping elements in the climate system. She is active within the Earth System Feedback Research Centre (EMBRACER) funded by NWO, the Centre for Complex Systems Studies in Utrecht (CCSS) and is leading the Horizon Europe funded project Past to Future on paleoclimate (P2F).
Richard Wood
Work Stream Lead
Met Office
richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk
Richard Wood is head of the Climate, Cryosphere and Oceans (CCO) group in the Met Office Hadley Centre, whose remit covers modelling the role of the oceans and ice in the climate system. Completing a PhD at Exeter University, Richard spent a couple of years as a lecturer in applied mathematics at Southampton University before joining the Met Office in 1989, becoming a founder member of the Met Office Hadley Centre in 1990. He was a member of the original teams that developed the ocean component of the Unified Model, and later the Met Office climate models Met Office climate prediction model: HadCM2 and Met Office climate prediction model: HadCM3. From the mid-1990s he was involved with colleagues in developing more sophisticated ways of evaluating climate models against oceanic observations, and in using climate models to study the stability of the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, leading to a number of high-profile publications.
Work Package 5

Constraining Tipping Point representations in models using paleoclimate records

Johannes Sutter
Work Package Lead
University of Bern
johannes.sutter@unibe.ch
Jonathan Donges is Deputy Lead of the Earth Resilience Science Unit (ERSU) at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He leads ERSU's research theme on integrated human-Earth system modelling and Earth resilience analysis. He interacts closely with PIK's Earth System Analysis (RD1) and Complexity Science Departments (RD4) in the scope of PIK's Earth System Science collaboration and the COPAN collaboration. His research work focusses on dynamics of planetary-scale socio-ecological systems, climatic and social tipping elements, their dynamics and interactions, decarbonization dynamics and sustainability transformation, conceptual models of society-environment coevolutionary dynamics, structure and dynamics of complex networks, nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis, and application of these methods to climate physics and Earth system analysis.
Vjeran Visnjevic
Researcher
University of Bern
vjeran.visnjevic@unibe.ch
Vjeran Visnjevic is a posdoctoral researcher in Earth System Modelling focusing on ice sheet dynamics.
Frerk Pöppelmeier
Researcher
University of Bern
frerk.poeppelmeier@unibe.ch
I am an Assistant Professor in Global Biogeochemical Modelling at the University of Bern, Switzerland, working on the reconstruction of ocean circulation and climate change during the Quaternary. With a background in isotope geochemistry and paleoceanography, I have transitioned to Earth system modelling, where I integrate direct reconstructions from marine sediments with model simulations. My research interests cover a broad range of topics, including the geochemical understanding of trace elements in the ocean and sediments used to reconstruct water mass properties, the stability conditions of the AMOC and it’s influence on the carbon cycle, and the interaction of continental ice sheets with the ocean during glacial-interglacial cycles.
Pierre Testorf
Researcher
University of Bern
pierre.testorf@unibe.ch
I study climate sciences to improve our representation of the climate system in climate models. Understanding past climate events allows to constrain future predictions, which is essential in addressing the current climate crisis. My research focus is on climate modelling and in particular on improving the representation of tipping points in climate models. I am investigating and reconstructing the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Dansgaard-Oeschger Events. For this, I will use the Bern3D model to directly compare paleoceanographic reconstructions to model simulations to better constrain past ocean circulation. Before, I did a Masters in Ocean and Climate Physics at the University of Hamburg with a thesis entitled "Teleconnections between Northern and Southern Hemispheric Ice Sheet Evolution during the Last Deglaciation". I am writing my Ph.D. thesis entitled "Constraining tipping point representation in climate models with paleoclimate records" supervised by Prof. Dr. Frerk Pöppelmeier and Prof. Dr. Johannes Sutter.
Work Package 6

Modelling Tipping Point characteristics of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ricarda Winkelmann
Work Package Lead
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
ricarda@pik-potsdam.de
Ricarda Winkelmann studied mathematics and physics at the Georg August University of Göttingen. In 2012, she received her doctorate from the University of Potsdam and PIK, where she subsequently conducted postdoctoral research. After a research stay at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford, she took up a junior professorship at PIK and the University of Potsdam in 2015. Since 2019, she has headed the Ice Dynamics working group and the FutureLab for Earth System Resilience in the Anthropocene at PIK, and has been a professor for climate system analysis at PIK and the University of Potsdam since 2020. She also leads one of the working groups of the Earth Commission, an international commission that investigates the limits of our planet's resilience with regard to anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity loss.
Alexander Robinson
Work Package Lead
Alfred-Wegener-Institute Potsdam
alexander.robinson@awi.de
I am leader of the research group Earth System Complexity at Alfred-Wegener-Institute Potsdam. Our work is focused on understanding long time-scale Earth system stability and large-scale feedbacks in the context of past glacial cycles and future climate change. I am the lead developer of the ice-sheet model Yelmo and a contributing developer to the fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X.
Marisa Montoya
Researcher
Complutense University of Madrid
mmontoya@ucm.es
Since 2023 I am a Professor at the Complutense University of Madrid. My research focuses on studying the evolution of climate and the cryosphere in the past and future. I completed my doctoral thesis at the University of Hamburg (Germany) in 19991. Subsequently, I obtained a postdoctoral position at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). In 2003, I joined the Complutense University of Madrid through the Ramón y Cajal Program.
Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Researcher
Complutense University of Madrid
jorge.alvarez.solas@fis.ucm.es
Jorge Álvarez‑Solas is a senior researcher at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, affiliated with the CSIC–UCM Geosciences Institute. His work centers on paleoclimate dynamics and ice‑sheet modeling, with a particular focus on the behavior and stability of large cryospheric systems like the Greenland ice sheet. He has collaborated internationally—including at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen—and regularly contributes to workshops and courses on climate modeling and astrochronology.
Javier Blasco Navarro
Researcher
Alfred-Wegener-Institute Potsdam
frerk.poeppelmeier@unibe.ch
My primary area of expertise is glaciology, with a research focus on the evolution of continental-scale ice sheets across various timescales, encompassing past, present, and future scenarios. I completed my doctoral thesis in 2020 at the Complutense University of Madrid (Spain). Subsequently, I obtained a Postdoctoral Researcher position at the Free University of Brussels (Belgium). Since 2024, I have started a new Postdoctoral Researcher at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Potsdam (Germany) within the Earth System Complexity Group.
Shivani Ehrenfeucht
Researcher
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
pierre.testorf@unibe.ch
Shivani Ehrenfeucht is a postdoctoral researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. She earned her PhD from the University of California, Irvine in September 2023, following a dissertation that examined the coupled dynamics of ice flow and subglacial hydrology at Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland. Her current work at PIK focuses on applying numerical models to assess long-term tipping behavior in ice sheets over millennial timescales, building on her expertise in ice dynamics, subglacial hydrology, and sea-level rise projections
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek
Researcher
Complutense University of Madrid
janswier@ucm.es
I am a PhD student of the international training network “CriticalEarth” that aims to investigate the possible abrupt transitions of the past, present and future climate. I work at Universidad Complutense de Madrid and mostly study the dynamics of the West-Antarctic ice sheet. The model I use to this end is now being coupled to an Earth system model of intermediate complexity within the frame of my secondment at PIK and shall improve the representation of the interactions between ice sheets and other climate components. Besides this, I am interested in modelling, machine learning, control theory and nonlinear dynamics.
Work Package 7

Modelling Tipping Point characteristics of the AMOC, Subpolar gyre, and sub-polar convection

Richard Wood
Work Package Lead
Met Office
richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk
Richard Wood is head of the Climate, Cryosphere and Oceans (CCO) group in the Met Office Hadley Centre, whose remit covers modelling the role of the oceans and ice in the climate system. Completing a PhD at Exeter University, Richard spent a couple of years as a lecturer in applied mathematics at Southampton University before joining the Met Office in 1989, becoming a founder member of the Met Office Hadley Centre in 1990. He was a member of the original teams that developed the ocean component of the Unified Model, and later the Met Office climate models Met Office climate prediction model: HadCM2 and Met Office climate prediction model: HadCM3. From the mid-1990s he was involved with colleagues in developing more sophisticated ways of evaluating climate models against oceanic observations, and in using climate models to study the stability of the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, leading to a number of high-profile publications.
Casey Patrizio
Researcher
Utrecht University
c.r.patrizio@uu.nl
My research is broadly focused on understanding the role of the ocean in climate variability and change through analysis of simple theoretical models, more complex global climate simulations, and observations. In 2021, I acquired my PhD at Colorado State University where I quantified the relative contributions of ocean and atmospheric processes to sea-surface temperature variability across the global oceans. Between 2021–2024, I worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC) in Bologna, Italy. There, I targeted the North Atlantic sector, including the role of ocean–atmosphere feedbacks in the decadal predictability of the NAO, and the effects of model resolution on the representation North Atlantic SST variability. Currently, I work as postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (IMAU) in Utrecht, Netherlands where I continue to work on understanding the mechanisms of North Atlantic variability and change, with a particular focus on subpolar North Atlantic–AMOC interactions and tipping dynamics.
Work Package 8

Modelling Tipping Point characteristics of the Amazon rainforest

Julia Pongratz
Work Package Lead
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
julia.pongratz@geographie.uni-muenchen.de
Julia is Director of the Department of Geography at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich (LMU). After studies of geography at LMU and the University of Maryland she received her PhD on the early human impact on the Earth system in 2009 at the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. She investigated food security and geoengineering as a postdoc at the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, then led an Emmy-Noether research group on Earth system modeling at Max Planck in Hamburg. She moved to LMU Munich in 2018 as professor for Physical Geography and Land Use Systems. Her work focuses on human-climate-vegetation feedbacks in past and future, drivers of anthropogenic emissions, and vegetation and climate modelling. Of particular interest is the question how we can manage the land in a way that allows us to adapt to climate change while at the same time reduces emissions. Julia is chair of the German research program CDRterra, which aims at a comprehensive assessment of terrestrial CDR to guide the development of sustainable pathways towards climate neutrality, and advices the German government on nature-based solutions. She contributes to the IPCC Assessment Reports and UNEP Emissions Gap Reports and coordinates the land-use emissions estimates in GCP's Global Carbon Budget.
Lucas Ferreira Correa
Researcher
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
lucas.ferreira@lmu.de
I am a meteorologist and climate scientist by training. My expertise and main research interests include atmospheric aerosols and radiative processes at the global scale, and meteorological and climate dynamics specific to the Amazon region. I hold a bachelor's degree in meteorology from the Federal University of Pará and a master's degree in meteorology from the University of São Paulo, both in Brazil, as well as a PhD in atmospheric sciences from ETH Zurich in Switzerland. As a postdoctoral researcher at LMU Munich within Work Package 8 of the ClimTip project, my research focuses on improving our understanding of potential climate tipping points in the Amazon rainforest.
Peter Cox
Researcher
University of Exeter
p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk
Peter Cox is Professor of Climate System Dynamics in Mathematics and the Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. He has previously worked at the Met Office-Hadley Centre (1990-2004) and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (2004-2006). He is an international leader in the understanding of interactions between the land biosphere and climate change. He led the team that carried-out the first climate simulations to include the carbon cycle and vegetation as interactive components (Cox et al., 2000), which highlighted the possibility of Amazon Forest dieback under climate change (Cox et al., 2004). Professor Cox is a lead author on the 4th, 5th and 6th Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a member of the UK Government’s Defra Scientific Advisory Council. He has been named as a highly-cited author by Thomson-Reuters for every year from 2014 onwards and won an ERC Advanced Grant in 2017. Professor Cox has made outstanding contributions to research within the field of climate change. His work was central to the early development of the Met Office Hadley Centre, where he held several positions including Head of Climate, Chemistry and Ecosystems, and from 2006 he has been driving the development of world-leading climate research at the University of Exeter.
Paul Ritchie
Researcher
University of Exeter
paul.ritchie@exeter.ac.uk
Paul Ritchie works on the intersect of dynamical systems theory and environmental change modelling, specialising in tipping points of strongly forced systems. He has pioneered the criteria of a mitigation window for overshoots of tipping thresholds and researched the effects a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would have on Great Britain’s land use. Paul Ritchie is a contributing author on Chapter 1 of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Work Package 9

Modelling Tipping Element interactions

Anna von der Heydt
Work Package Lead
Utrecht University
a.s.vonderheydt@uu.nl
Anna von der Heydt is a professor for paleoclimate dynamics at the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research at Utrecht University, the Netherlands. Trained as a physicist at the University of Marburg (Germany), she received her PhD degree at the University of Twente (Netherlands) working on fluid dynamics. Her work focusses on (palaeo-) climate phenomena and transition behaviour in climate using a hierarchy of climate models and stochastic dynamical systems approaches. She works on quantifying the state-dependent climate response to forcing. In 2021 she received a personal grant by the Dutch Research Council (NWO) to investigate interaction tipping elements in the climate system. She is active within the Earth System Feedback Research Centre (EMBRACER) funded by NWO, the Centre for Complex Systems Studies in Utrecht (CCSS) and is leading the Horizon Europe funded project Past to Future on paleoclimate (P2F).
Robbin Bastiaansen
Researcher
Utrecht University
r.bastiaansen@uu.nl
Dr. Robbin Bastiaansen is assistant professor at a joint position between the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU) and the Mathematical Institute (MI) at Utrecht University. He obtained his PhD degree in applied mathematics from Leiden University in 2019 on pattern formation and desertification. His research focusses on nonlinear dynamical systems and their applications to climate (sub)systems and ecosystems. Hereby, he combines the development of new mathematical theory and techniques, and the application of these to get a better understanding of climate and ecosystem responses to forcings.
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Work Stream 3

Climate and ecosystem impacts of crossing Tipping Points

Work Packages 10 | 11 | 12
Giovanni Forzieri
Work Stream Lead
University of Florence
giovanni.forzieri@unifi.it
Giovanni Forzieri is an Associate Professor at the University of Florence, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (DICEA). His research focuses on the interactions between climate, vegetation, and the water cycle, using remote sensing, modeling, and data analytics. He studies the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and water resources, and contributes to assessments supporting European climate adaptation policy. He is also involved in developing large-scale datasets on forest disturbances and land–climate feedbacks.
Sebastian Bathiany
Work Stream Lead
Technical University of Munich
sebastian.bathiany@tum.de
I am a meteorologist and climate scientist by training. My research interests include “tipping points” and the interaction between the atmosphere and the Earth‘s surface (in particular, vegetation and sea ice). I use approaches informed by dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and complex Earth system models. I also have a special passion for creative forms of science communication.
Work Package 10

Climatic impacts of crossing Tipping Points

Niklas Boers
Work Package Lead
Technical University of Munich,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
n.boers@tum.de
Niklas Boers is Professor of Earth system modelling at Technical University of Munich. He works on theoretical questions of Earth system science with focus on the analysis, modelling, and prediction of extreme events and abrupt transitions (‘tipping points’). In his research, he develops methods rooted in Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, in particular Complexity Science and Machine Learning, to combine process-based and data-driven models. His work finds applications in climate dynamics, paleoclimatology, and in the context of anthropogenic climate change.
Niklas Boers studied Physics and Mathematics at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Technical University of Munich and obtained his PhD in Theoretical Physics from the Humboldt University of Berlin. Thereafter he worked on different topics in theoretical Earth system dynamics at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris, Imperial College London, and Freie Universität Berlin.
Philipp Hess
Researcher
Technical University of Munich,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
philipp.hess@tum.de
I am a postdoc researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Technical University of Munich. My work focuses on developing machine learning applications to improve process-based weather and climate model simulations. I am particularly interested in adapting generative machine learning methods for image-processing and video generation to applications such as dynamical emulation, downscaling, bias correction, and subgrid-scale parameterizations.
Christoph Raible
Researcher
University of Bern
christoph.raible@unibe.ch
Christoph Raible is Professor at the Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland. His research interests include processes of the climate system, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction, climate modelling, atmospheric dynamics, past and future climate change, predictability, tropical and extra tropical cyclones, and climate impacts.
Alejandro Hermoso Verge
Researcher
University of Bern
alejandro.hermoso@unibe.ch
Christoph Raible is Professor at the Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland. His research interests include processes of the climate system, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction, climate modelling, atmospheric dynamics, past and future climate change, predictability, tropical and extra tropical cyclones, and climate impacts.
Work Package 11

Ecosystem resilience changes under gradual and abrupt climate changes

Tim Lenton
Work Package Lead
University of Exeter
t.m.lenton@exeter.ac.uk
Tim Lenton is Professor and the founding Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science. He has more than 25 years research experience, focused on modelling of the biosphere, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and associated tipping points. Tim is renowned for his work identifying climate tipping points, which informed the setting of the 1.5C climate target, associated net zero targets, and nationally determined contributions.
Tim works with policymakers and businesses helping them assess the risks of climate change and nature loss and highlighting the opportunities for ‘positive tipping points’ that can accelerate change towards net zero. In 2023, Professor Lenton led a team of more than 200 people from over 90 organisations in 26 countries to produce an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. The ‘Global Tipping Points Report’ produced in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund was published at COP28.
Chris Boulton
Researcher
University of Exeter
c.a.boulton@exeter.ac.uk
Chris Boulton is a Research Fellow and Lecturer at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. He investigates early-warning signals of abrupt shifts in climate and ecological systems, using statistical analysis of time-series data. His recent work includes studying the resilience of the Amazon rainforest and North Atlantic climate variability. He also contributes to ecosystem modeling topics like vegetation-carbon dynamics and forest tipping points.
Work Package 12

Effects of abrupt climate changes on biodiversity

Vasilis Dakos
Work Package Lead
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
vasilis.dakos@umontpellier.fr
I am interested in ecological stability, tipping points, and the effects of eco-evolutionary feedbacks on ecosystem resilience under global change. I develop and test indicators for resilience (or early-warning signals) for critical transitions in complex systems, like ecological networks and socio-ecological systems. I work on a variety of levels of ecological organisation from populations, communities and ecosystems and a variety of systems -ecological, sociological , or climatic. My overall aim is to develop ways for measuring and understanding resilience in ecology and evolution to help design monitoring and decision-making tools for ecological management and conservation. You can find more info about my work in my personal webpage
Claire Jacquet
Researcher
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
claire.jacquet@umontpellier.fr
I am a theoretical ecologist broadly interested in the general mechanisms leading to the emergence and persistence of biodiversity at the ecological and macro-ecological scales. My research aims at understanding ecosystem resilience to extreme events in spatially structured systems to improve the identification of species and communities most vulnerable to global change. My work combines theoretical models and data analysis from marine and freshwater communities.
Krishna Girish
Researcher
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
krishna.girish@umontpellier.fr
My research interests are broadly focused towards using ecological theory and large datasets towards understanding impacts of anthropogenic change on ecosystems. I work as a research engineer on the CLIMTIP project, modeling how global climate tipping points (the shutdown of the AMOC or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest) will impact global biodiversity. Using global distribution records of species and future climate projections under different scenarios, I aim to evaluate biodiversity risks and identify species and regions that are at risk of collapse and extinction. I work in the BioDicée group, under Vasilis Dakos and Claire Jacquet.
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Work Stream 4

Mitigation, adaptation, and the socioeconomic cost of crossing Tipping Points

Work Packages 13 | 14 | 15 | 16
Gabriele Messori
Work Stream Lead
Uppsala University
gabriele.messori@geo.uu.se
Gabriele Messori obtained his MSc. in Theoretical Physics from Imperial College London in 2010 and his Ph. D. in Atmospheric Physics, also from Imperial College, in January 2014. He has since worked as post-doctoral researcher and research scientist at the Department of Meteorology of Stockholm University, as research scientist at the UK Met Office, and has been visiting scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement in Paris. He joined the Department of Earth Sciences in Uppsala University in 2018, where he is currently Professor of Meteorology.
David Stainforth
Work Stream Lead
The London School of Economics and Political Science
d.a.stainforth@lse.ac.uk
David is a physicist by training and has many years’ experience of climate modelling. While a researcher at Oxford University, he co-founded and was chief scientist of the climateprediction.net project, the world’s largest climate modelling experiment. David has been both a NERC Research Fellow and a Tyndall Research Fellow at Oxford University.
Research interests include addressing questions such as:
How we can extract robust and useful information about future climate, and climate related phenomena, from modelling experiments;
Issues of how to design climate modelling experiments and how to link climate science to real-world decision making in such a way as to be of value to industry, policymakers and wider society.
Work Package 13

Ecosystem adaptation strategies and implications for mitigation

Giovanni Forzieri
Work Package Lead
University of Florence
giovanni.forzieri@unifi.it
I am a climate scientist with a background in eco-hydrology and remote sensing. My research activity lies at the interface between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere. It aims towards the understanding of the dynamics of the global water and energy cycles, the impact of climate change on socio-environmental systems, and the influence of land feedbacks on climate and climate extremes. These works include the synergic integration of Earth observations with process-based models and big data analytics developed within multi-disciplinary frameworks. Outcomes of my research activity have contributed to the development and implementation of EU policy on climate change and adaptation
Work Package 14

Impacts of climate tipping on risks on crop productivity

Christoph Müller
Work Package Lead
Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research
cmueller@pik-potsdam.de
Christoph is the working group leader of the RD2 working group Land Biosphere Dynamics, and co-leads the Global Biosphere and Water Modeling group. He is acting as the scientist-in-charge for the LPJmL model at PIK. Internationally, Christoph is the Co-lead of Ag-GRID initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project AgMIP. He also is engaged as Topical editor for Geoscientific Model Development promoting open access science and source code of models.
Work Package 15

Food security and agricultural livelihoods

Rosalind Cornforth
Work Package Lead
Walker Institute, University of Reading
r.j.cornforth@reading.ac.uk
Ros Cornforth is Professor of Climate and Development and Director of the Walker Institute. She has a PhD in Tropical Meteorology and over 15 years’ experience collaborating with national met services, governments and NGOs in developing countries. As Director of the Walker Institute, she is responsible for its strategic vision, human, financial, environmental and technical operations. She has proven leadership expertise working on the ground in developing countries, designing early warning systems and implementing large-scale interdisciplinary projects around managing for climate resilience. She is currently PI/Co-PI on several major collaborative research projects in Africa and has extensive high-level experience working as a technical consultant with UN agencies and governments, including Africa Union (AU-DRR team, AU-NEPAD), the UN (WHO/WMO, UNEP, UNDP, UNCCST, WFP), World Bank, and the UK Department for International Development (DfID). The African Climate Exchange (AfClix), established by Professor Cornforth in 2011, facilitated the interaction between academics, policymakers and practitioners in Africa. AfClix emerged as an important boundary organization to identify how climate science can play a substantive role in reducing people’s vulnerabilities to weather-related hazards in Africa.
Celia Petty
Researcher
Walker Institute, University of Reading
e.c.petty@reading.ac.uk
Celia Petty is Deputy Director and Strategic Lead for Livelihoods at the Walker Institute, University of Reading, where she leads research on how climate change affects rural communities and their livelihoods. She co-founded the NGO Evidence for Development and previously held senior roles at Save the Children UK and the Imperial War Museum. Celia holds a PhD from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and studied History at Oxford. Her work blends household economy methods with climate risk tools like the Integrated Database and Applications for Policy Makers (IDAPs) to support policy-making in contexts such as sub-Saharan Africa. She also supervises doctoral students at Reading and King’s College London, and contributes to global climate resilience initiatives focused on linking climate impacts with community livelihoods
Daniel Mardi
Researcher
Walker Institute, University of Reading
d.mardi@reading.ac.uk
Daniel is dedicated to bridging the gap between scientific research and socio-economic development to influence effective policy in emerging economies. Holding an MSc in Environment, Politics, and Development from King’s College London, his analytical focus was the socio-economic impacts of infrastructure projects in Kenya. At Walker, he works on projects including UNEP Lao, and CHAIRR in Malawi, focusing extensively on socio-economic dimensions and integrating economic data into public policy and development strategies.His work with the ClimTip. Using his mixed-method background, Daniel is helping the goal to enhance data transparency and support adapting early warning systems for famine in the Sahel region—an area identified as a critical ecological hotspot. Through his commitment to mixed-method research, Daniel is striving to develop comprehensive climate risk mitigation models that incorporate both economic and environmental considerations, with the aim of strengthening resilience in vulnerable regions.
Work Package 16

Socioeconomic costs of Tipping Point crossings

David Stainforth
Work Package Lead
The London School of Economics and Political Science
d.a.stainforth@lse.ac.uk
David is a physicist by training and has many years’ experience of climate modelling. While a researcher at Oxford University, he co-founded and was chief scientist of the climateprediction.net project, the world’s largest climate modelling experiment. David has been both a NERC Research Fellow and a Tyndall Research Fellow at Oxford University.
Research interests include addressing questions such as:
How we can extract robust and useful information about future climate, and climate related phenomena, from modelling experiments;
Issues of how to design climate modelling experiments and how to link climate science to real-world decision making in such a way as to be of value to industry, policymakers and wider society.
Jonathan Rosser
Researcher
The London School of Economics and Political Science
j.p.rosser@lse.ac.uk
Jonathan works at the intersection of climate science and economics. As part of the ClimTip Horizon project, he researches the economics impacts on climate tipping points as well as the use and design of climate model ensembles for decision-making. Prior to joining the Grantham Institute, Jonathan completed a PhD focusing on global climate model representation of the Southern Ocean, based at the University of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey. The focus of this research was on the analysis and intercomparison of global climate models in the CMIP6 ensemble under  control and forced scenarios. During this time he also worked on uncertainties in climate tipping points at the Existential Risk Alliance, and international climate diplomacy and UK heat supply at the UK Climate Change Committee. He holds an MMath (Masters in Mathematics) and an MA (Masters of Arts in Natural Sciences) from the University of Cambridge.
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Work Stream 5

Outreach and Management

Work Packages 17 | 18
Sebastian Bathiany
Work Stream Lead
Technical University of Munich
sebastian.bathiany@tum.de
Kuat Abeshev
Work Stream Lead
Technical University of Munich
kuat.abeshev@tum.de
Work Package 17

Outreach & Dissemination

Thomas Stocker
Work Package Lead
University of Bern
thomas.stocker@unibe.ch
Thomas Stocker is Professor Emeritus at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research. From 1993 to 2024, he was Professor of Climate and Environmental Physics at the Physics Institute, University of Bern, and served as President of the Oeschger Centre from 2017 to 2024. He previously held research positions at University College London, McGill University, Columbia University, and the University of Hawai'i.
His research focuses on developing climate models of intermediate complexity and studying abrupt climate change, ocean dynamics, and paleoclimate records. Stocker co-developed a widely used class of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. At the University of Bern, he advanced ice core analysis techniques that led to the reconstruction of CO₂ and CH₄ records spanning the past 800,000 years—still a global benchmark. He played a key role in the European deep ice core project “Beyond EPICA: Oldest Ice,” contributing during field expeditions in Antarctica.
Stocker co-chaired IPCC Working Group I (2008–2015), leading the 2013 report that laid the scientific foundation for the Paris Agreement. His contributions have earned him numerous honors, including the Hans Oeschger Medal, the Marcel Benoist Prize, and membership in several national and international scientific academies.
Kuat Abeshev
Head of Communications
Technical University of Munich
kuat.abeshev@tum.de
I focus on science communication of climate tipping points research, sharing the generated knowledge with various audiences from youth and activists to scientists and decision makers. My experience in creative media, graphic design and advertising are followed by roles at Germanwatch and the World Biogas Association in climate and environmental policy analysis. After completing M.Sc. in Political Science and M.Sc. Environmental Engineering at the Technical University of Munich, I continue my doctoral research on the politics of climate emotions exploring how eco-grief can drive climate action. Passionate about effective communication, I am committed to fostering a well-informed civil society and driving meaningful social change.
Rosalind Cornforth
Researcher
Walker Institute, University of Reading
r.j.cornforth@reading.ac.uk
Ros Cornforth is Professor of Climate and Development and Director of the Walker Institute. She has a PhD in Tropical Meteorology and over 15 years’ experience collaborating with national met services, governments and NGOs in developing countries. As Director of the Walker Institute, she is responsible for its strategic vision, human, financial, environmental and technical operations. She has proven leadership expertise working on the ground in developing countries, designing early warning systems and implementing large-scale interdisciplinary projects around managing for climate resilience. She is currently PI/Co-PI on several major collaborative research projects in Africa and has extensive high-level experience working as a technical consultant with UN agencies and governments, including Africa Union (AU-DRR team, AU-NEPAD), the UN (WHO/WMO, UNEP, UNDP, UNCCST, WFP), World Bank, and the UK Department for International Development (DfID). The African Climate Exchange (AfClix), established by Professor Cornforth in 2011, facilitated the interaction between academics, policymakers and practitioners in Africa. AfClix emerged as an important boundary organization to identify how climate science can play a substantive role in reducing people’s vulnerabilities to weather-related hazards in Africa.
Imke Hoppe
Researcher
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
imke.hoppe@geographie.uni-muenchen.de
Since April 2023, Imke Hoppe has held the tenure-track professorship in Science Communication and Climate Education in the Department of Geography at the Faculty of Earth Sciences.
As deputy head of department at the Fraunhofer Institute for Digital Media Technology IDMT, she oversaw the development of digital educational media for children and youth. At the University of Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence CliSAP, she researched public responses to climate change as part of the DFG Priority Programme “Science and the Public,” focusing on media coverage of climate conferences and IPCC reports.
As a PostDoc at the Chair of Journalism and Communication Studies, she analyzed social media discussions on food and sustainability across five countries in the project Sustainable Lives. She later worked at the DLR Institute on autonomous public transport and mobility transitions. She completed her PhD in Empirical Media Research and Political Communication at TU Ilmenau, where she led the development of a 3D online simulation game on energy saving to test media effects on climate-related attitudes and behavior.
Work Package 18

Project Management

Sebastian Bathiany
Work Package Lead
Technical University of Munich
sebastian.bathiany@tum.de
I am a meteorologist and climate scientist by training. My research interests include “tipping points” and the interaction between the atmosphere and the Earth‘s surface (in particular, vegetation and sea ice). I use approaches informed by dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and complex Earth system models. I also have a special passion for creative forms of science communication.
Anita Schnierle
Project Manager
Bavarian Research Alliance
schnierle@bayfor.org
Anita is a Project Manager at BayFOR's Project Management Unit, with broad experience in handling European projects. She has worked on various programs like Horizon, Interreg, COSME, and Erasmus+, making her an expert in managing complex initiatives. With a Master's in Economy and Management of the Public Sector and a Bachelor's in European Studies, Anita brings a strong understanding of public sector economics and European policies to her role.
Marcus Süß
Project Manager
Bavarian Research Alliance
suess@bayfor.org
Marcus is a Project Manager in BayFORs Unit Project Management and has more than 13 years of experience in advising and supporting research consortia (writing successful RDI-proposals, managing and disseminating large-scale research projects). He holds an advanced degree (diploma) in Human Geography and is an expert in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for the visualization of thematic contents within maps.
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