Safeguarding Earth Systems stability by understanding and addressing climate tipping points
Learn more“Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity. They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability and financial collapse.”
“The science on tipping points is far from done – it has barely begun – and much better models are needed to address the question of what warming level is critical for which tipping point.”
“With every square kilometre of deforestation, every fraction of degree of global warming, we are raising the risk of a tipping point. Yet, it is incredibly simple to just stop deforestation. It is an absolutely unique ecosystem that we really can’t afford to lose.”
The project will improve our understanding of tipping phenomena in the Earth system, including the representation of Tipping Elements in Earth System Models. ClimTip will provide the theoretical basis for important concepts such as Early Warning Signals, resilience and rate-dependent tipping.
ClimTip will evaluate how Tipping Elements are represented in advanced climate models by analyzing polar ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and the Amazon rainforest in terms of their responses to critical forcing thresholds, rates, hysteresis, overshoot potential and interactions among them, with implications for tipping cascades.
The project will use dynamical and statistical/Machine Learning-based techniques to investigate the repercussions of tipping events on the biosphere. It will evaluate the impacts of Atlantic ocean circulation collapse and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest on extreme weather phenomena like heatwaves, cold spells, droughts, as well as on ecosystems and biodiversity.
The bias-corrected storyline climate tipping scenarios will be leveraged to develop data-driven models for evaluating impacts on forestry and agriculture, wider society and economy and derive policy-relevant information on the potential for mitigation and adaptation.
We aim to improve public awareness of risks associated with tipping points through a comprehensive outreach and communication strategy. The project results will be shared with the general public, civil society and decision makers for efficient use and to maximise the scientific and societal impacts of our research.
