Antarctica looks like a single, continuous mass of ice on the map. But the seeming simplicity of vast white hides complex reality. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is made up of several distinct regions, each shaped by different geological basins, grounding-line geometries, and feedbacks. And because they behave differently, their vulnerability to future warming varies too.
In this webinar, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek (Complutense University of Madrid) presented new research on a question that has received less attention. Could the speed of warming, not just the warming level, trigger ice sheet collapse?
This mechanism, known as rate-induced tipping (R-tipping), occurs when stabilizing processes cannot keep pace with rapid environmental change.
What we learned from the talk
Jan’s modelling work suggests:
- West Antarctica (WAIS) remains critically vulnerable through the well-known marine ice-sheet instability (MISI), but R-tipping itself appears unlikely there.
- Some East Antarctic subglacial basins, which are usually considered more resilient, may be sensitive to rapid warming rates. Their internal tipping thresholds could be crossed within the coming centuries if climate change continues at today’s pace.
- A major factor is glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) — the slow uplift of the bedrock as ice mass is lost. GIA acts as a stabilizing counterforce, but it responds too slowly when warming accelerates. That mismatch in timescales is what can open the door to R-tipping.
Why this matters
The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet under climate change could mean a series of dramatic ice loss events. Different regions may cross thresholds for different reasons: some because warming rises too high, others because it rises too quickly.
Jan’s work brings new clarity to how these dynamics interact, and why both equilibrium and transient behaviours need to be considered when assessing long-term sea-level rise.
Complete Webinar Recording
The full webinar recording is available on our YouTube channel.
Reference: Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya (upcoming) Rate-induced tipping in marine-based regions of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Visit our YouTube channel to find more webinars on science of climate tipping points.
Add to your Watchlist
Watch the previous ClimTip webinar with John Baker on the AMOC collapse debate.
Thumbnail and opener: Design by Kuat Abeshev. Photo by Tetiana Grypachevska, Unsplash (Antarctica, January 2022).
