Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of losing resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.
“We now have convincing observational evidence that multiple Earth system components are destabilising,”
says lead author Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Technical University of Munich (TUM).
“These systems may be approaching critical thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes with severe consequences.” The researchers' major concern is that these climate systems are not isolated. They are part of a larger network of tipping elements, interacting with each other via the oceans and the atmosphere.
To identify and track signs of destabilisation, the international team of scientists analysed long-term observational records and developed a new mathematical method to assess how systems recover from disturbances. A reduced capacity to recover is a clear sign of declining stability. Across data sources and analytical techniques, the evidence consistently pointed to the same conclusion: several climate subsystems are weakening.
Signals across the Earth system
While climate models are not yet able to capture these dynamics with sufficient reliability, the observational signals are already visible. The Greenland Ice Sheet, for instance, is destabilised by feedbacks that accelerate melting: once bright snow cover is lost, darker ice absorbs more heat, and as the ice sheet shrinks, its surface lowers into warmer air, further fueling melt.
The AMOC is threatened by increasing freshwater input from melting ice and rainfall, reducing the salinity and density of surface waters, a key driver of the circulation. In South America, climate change in combination with deforestation are weakening the Amazon rainforest, while the South American monsoon system faces the risks of abrupt shifts in rainfall if the forest’s moisture recycling is disrupted.
“With every tenth of a degree of additional warming, the likelihood of crossing a tipping point increases,” Boers emphasizes. “That alone should be a powerful argument for rapid and decisive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”
Because the exact thresholds remain uncertain, the authors stress the importance of building a global monitoring and early warning system to detect signs of destabilization early on. High-resolution satellite data on vegetation and ice melt, combined with long-term climate records and modern machine-learning techniques, could allow real-time tracking of the resilience of critical tipping elements.
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The official press release can be accessed via EurekAlert!.
For additional information or to schedule an interview with the researchers, please contact Niklas Boers at boers@pik-potsdam.de.
Reference:
Niklas Boers, Teng Liu, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Nils Bochow, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Andreas Morr, Da Nian, Martin Rypdal & Taylor Smith (2025): Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements, Nature Goescience (2025). Available on Nature Goescience.
Image credit: "Out of Balance" (Digital collage from AI-generated art with typography) by Kuat Abeshev.
