As the world edges closer to 1.5°C of warming, the risk of crossing critical Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs) is no longer a distant concern, but an emerging security threat. A new workshop report, released following high-level discussions in Brussels, outlines how Europe must prepare for the far-reaching consequences of destabilized planetary systems.
In November 2024, leading scientists, policymakers, and European institutions gathered in Brussels for the workshop “Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points: Implications for EU Governance.” The event brought together expertise from Earth system science, mathematics, economics, finance, and social sciences to explore the risks posed by Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs) and the governance challenges they present for the EU.
The newly published workshop report provides a detailed account of these discussions. It follows the Science for Policy Brief (Roman Cuesta et al., 2025) released in February 2025, and highlights urgent steps needed to protect Europe from systemic risks linked to tipping points.
What are Earth System Tipping Points?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines a tipping point as “a critical threshold beyond which a system re-organizes, often abruptly and/or irreversibly.” Tipping elements include the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and boreal forests. Crossing these thresholds could trigger abrupt and practically irreversible impacts on climate, ecosystems, and societies.
Europe’s vulnerability
Europe is particularly exposed. Risks include:
- Collapse of the AMOC, with major disruption to monsoon systems and cooling in Northern Europe.
- Widespread forest dieback in the Mediterranean and boreal regions.
- Melting of European glaciers and Greenland’s Ice Sheet.
- Loss of tropical coral reefs, with global biodiversity consequences.
These risks could translate into food and water insecurity, economic shocks, and geopolitical instability across the continent.
Workshop findings: What Europe must do
The report underscores that Europe is unprepared for rapidly increasing climate risks and outlines key recommendations:
- Anticipatory governance: integrate ESTP risks into EU climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, and financial risk frameworks.
- Early warning systems: expand Earth Observation and monitoring to detect destabilization before tipping occurs.
- Socio-economic integration: connect biophysical models with economic and financial systems to improve risk assessments.
- Strategic foresight: use scenario analysis and stress testing to prepare for cascading crises.
- International cooperation: strengthen cross-border coordination and global climate mitigation to avoid triggering tipping points.
Who took part
The workshop featured leading researchers and policymakers, including:
- ClimTip scientists: Sebastian Bathiany (Technical University of Munich, project coordinator), Tim Lenton (University of Exeter), Jonathan Donges and Ricarda Winkelmann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Valerio Lucarini (University of Leicester).
- Other experts: Robert Vautard (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Chair of IPCC AR7 Working Group I), and representatives from the European Commission (Joint Research Centre, Directorates-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA), Environment (DG ENV), Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO), European Space Agency (ESA), European Environment Agency (EEA), and Future Earth, among others.
The report makes clear that while scientific uncertainties remain, the risks of crossing Earth system tipping points are too great to ignore. For Europe, the message is urgent: preparing for systemic shocks is not optional — it is essential for resilience, security, and the future of its citizens.
Download the full report here. This workshop report is published alongside a Science for Policy Brief (Roman Cuesta et al., 2025), released in February 2025.
Image credit: Design by Kuat Abeshev. Photo by Gatis Vilaks on Unsplash.
